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Crunching some numbers! (Part 1)

With the transfer window around the corner and the discussions around concerning our lack of forward prowess as popular as ever, I thought I'd have a go at analyzing some of the seasons statistics!

The hopes of this article are to give some insight into some of the most talked about subjects here on Vital Chelsea. This time however, I wanted to use a bit more of a statistics-based approach to fuel the discussion!

The most obvious place to start here would be comparing our ability to create and convert chances. Out of the top three, you might be surprised to hear that our boys in blue actually place second in the amount of chances created over the course of the season, as can be seen below.

Chances created Premier League 2013/14

1. City - 494
2. Chelsea - 483
3. Liverpool - 454

Considering the number of goals scored, we get the following conversion rate from these chances;

1. Liverpool - 2.15%
2. City - 19.43%
3. Chelsea - 14.29%

Out of these goals, strikers from the respective team have stood for;

1. Liverpool - 50 or 52.10% (Suarez, Sturridge, Aspas)
2. City - 42 or 43.75% (Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo, Jovetic)
3. Chelsea - 18 or 26.01% (Eto'o, Ba, Torres)

Conclusion: We are creating enough chances; however we are too ineffective in our attempts to convert. Our midfield, contributing with a total of 42 league goals; have a staggering 60.1% contribution to total goals scored in the Premier League campaign.

Unsurprisingly, the bottom line is that YES our strikers have let us down for yet another season and this area is in perhaps the greatest need of strengthening. Who do you see as possible investments to sharpen our attack?

In the second part of this article I will be analyzing our highly debated central midfield so stay tuned!

BONUS: Did you know that Chelsea's defenders have collectively created 66 (Luiz excluded) chances this season? That's 11 more chances than the strikers!

Thanks for reading!


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The Journalist

Writer: CFCSwede Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Monday May 5 2014

Time: 3:34PM

Your Comments

Some nice stats there. Well we do need to strengthen the striker slot. It is a must. i can't still believe how we totally bungled last summer's transfer window.
Do we have any statistics on hitting the woodwork? I heard Chelsea have hit the woodwork 32 times this season, although that might be in all competitions. It does just show how close we have been to turning these draws to victories.
You left out one stat. How many of those chances fell to our forwards? According to stats, Ba has around 1.6 shots per game, Torres has around 2 and Eto'o, who has been the most wasteful, has 2.8 per game(EPL). Suarez has 5.5 shots per game, and a total of 171 shots. That is immense when compared to a meagre 31 of Ba. Sturridge has 3.3 shots per game, Aguero has 3.6 shots per game, Diego Costa has 3.2 shots per game.(All of the stats are league stats, courtesy of Safe to say, apart from Eto'o our other forwards have got almost a third of the chances that other forwards get.
Tahsin Nawaz
@Tahsin Nawaz Very fair point! Its important to keep in mind that stats don't always give a fair reflection of the real picture. While I do acknowledge the fact that our strikers are hardly the sole party to blame for their shyness in front of goal, I also believe that strikers should be able to make their own luck to some extent. Suarez as you mentioned has a ridiculous amount of shots this season, but besides that he has created a total of 85 chances. On the other hand, you have Dzeko and Aguero who have managed 31 goals between them while producing 47 chances. They have on the other hand had both Silva and Nasri producing 80+ chances a piece to help them out. Just goes to show that there are varying means for strikers to produce goals. I believe that our attacking talent(midfielders and strikers included) need to improve their decision making drastically, but I also feel that our strikers need to give it a proper go. If they don't shoot and play proactively then they can't expect to score. I sometimes feel that instead of them giving it a good go with a hopeful shot, they make the decision to wait for support and try to score through over complicated passing hoping to walk the ball into the net(Arsenalesque one could say lol).
Our strikers will never get the opportunities Liverpool strikers get because Chelsea play in a more cautious manner. Liverpool can't defend to save their lives but Suarez is so clinical it hardly matters. (Or at least they thought it didn't matter but now they might lose the league on goal difference). Anyway, our No.1 striker for most of the season (Torres) hides. He is frightened to shoot. He doesn't put himself in a position to score most of the time. Of our strikers Eto'o is definitely the best at trying to create something out of nothing. Hassling the goalkeeper, chasing defenders etc. A younger version of Eto'o is what we need.
Torres, I refuse to say a word about him. He almost single-handedly got us victory against City and the Bridge, and had a decent run of games where he would score in back to back matches. But then somehow get injured and go back to square one. Ba for me should have been the main man, this season and last season. He hardly gets chances, but his movement is probably the best we can muster right now and his physical presence is an added benefit. I felt he could have scored at least 20 goals if he did start more regularly and gel with the team, but we went with Eto'o who ruined a lot of chances at the start.
Tahsin Nawaz
I am only satisfied with Eto'o's performance form our strikers.Torres is an exceptionally weird striker,capable of producing games like Man City(h),Atletico (h & a),Schalke(a) ,but lacking the consistence and confidence to do it on regular basis.Demba Ba is just not from Chelsea's class,he always seems to take the wrong option or even if he makes the right decision his implementation is simply horrible,he just relies on a good cross or good through ball.
One data is missed on this stat, i.e chances created for our strikers...Yes, our strikers are pathetic, but that doesnt hide the fact that our AMs are little selfish and take some questionable decision on the pitch.
If we dont correct this problem with AM's decision making & their play, no striker will suceed at chelsea.
How do liverpool have a conversion rate of 2.15%, when they are ahead of us on goal difference, but behind us on chances created?

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